Unveiling 2024: Market Outlook and Key Trends Get your free copy
-
UK
- Australia - English
- België - Nederlands
- Belgique - Français
- Brazil - Portuguese
- Canada - English
- Česká Republika - Čeština
- Deutschland - Deutsch
- España - Español
- France - Français
- Ελλάδα - Ελληνικά
- Hong Kong - English
- Hong Kong - Traditional Chinese
- Italia - Italiano
- Luxembourg - English
- Nederland - Nederlands
- Polska - Polski
- Portugal - Português
- România - Română
- Schweiz - Deutsch
- Suisse - Français
- Sverige - Svenska
- United Arab Emirates - English
- United Kingdom - English
Contact our experts
Ebury London
100 Victoria Street
London
SW1E 5JL
+44 (0) 20 3872 6670
[email protected]
Ebury.com
Sterling extends sell-off on risk aversion, mixed UK labour data
- Go back to blog home
- Latest
15 August 2018
Senior Market Analyst at Ebury. Providing expert currency analysis so small and mid-sized businesses can effectively navigate international markets.
The Pound continued to lose ground against a broadly stronger US Dollar on Tuesday, briefly falling below the 1.27 mark this morning, as ongoing concerns over Turkey led to another risk off session.
This week could be a crucial one for the Pound, a currency in desperate need of some positive data surprises to reverse its recent Brexit induced sell-off. Inflation data out this morning came in as expected at 2.5%. Tomorrow’s retail sales could also prove important, although with selling pressure high, external risks may limit any potential gains.
Euro hits fresh 13 month low as external pressure builds
With financial markets still wary of the possibility of a full blown economic crisis in Turkey following the recent sell-off in the Lira, investors continued to sell the riskier Euro in favour of the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains under intense external pressure, falling by over half a percent again yesterday and slipping to a fresh thirteen month low.
The key to the Euro’s larger sell-off in relation to its peers lies in the exposure of European banks to Turkey. Investors are increasingly concerned that entities from Turkey that failed to hedge their currency risk may now have major problems repaying loans from European institutions. A weaker Lira automatically increases Turkey’s external debt obligations, which could conceivably lead to the country defaulting on many of its existing debt obligations. Couple that with increasing odds of a no Brexit deal and it’s no real surprise that the Euro was firmly on the back foot so far this month.
Turmoil in Turkey stokes US Dollar buying
As for the US Dollar, the currency shows no signs of letting up this week, despite a relatively sharp correction in the Lira yesterday. Risk of contagion in Europe means that the greenback is now the default safe-haven currency during the Turkey turmoil.
There were no major macroeconomic releases out of the US on Tuesday, with investors instead awaiting this afternoon’s retail sales numbers. With a very modest 0.1% increase pencilled in, we think that the bar is low for a positive surprise in the data that could provide additional wind in the sails of the Dollar’s rally.
Cookies and Privacy
This site uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience. For more information see our Privacy NoticeAccept Settings Reject
Privacy Overview
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
cf_use_ob | past | This cookie is set by the provider Cloudflare content delivery network. This cookie is used for determining whether it should continue serving "Always Online" until the cookie expires. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement | 1 year | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional | 11 months | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". |
viewed_cookie_policy | 11 months | The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_ga | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors. |
_ga_P8154YCRDP | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. |
_gat_gtag_UA_51187572_50 | 1 minute | Google uses this cookie to distinguish users. |
_gid | 1 day | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form. |
_hjFirstSeen | 30 minutes | This is set by Hotjar to identify a new user’s first session. It stores a true/false value, indicating whether this was the first time Hotjar saw this user. It is used by Recording filters to identify new user sessions. |
_hjid | 1 year | This cookie is set by Hotjar. This cookie is set when the customer first lands on a page with the Hotjar script. It is used to persist the random user ID, unique to that site on the browser. This ensures that behavior in subsequent visits to the same site will be attributed to the same user ID. |
CONSENT | 16 years 4 months 14 hours 27 minutes | These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. They register anonymous statistical data on for example how many times the video is displayed and what settings are used for playback.No sensitive data is collected unless you log in to your google account, in that case your choices are linked with your account, for example if you click “like” on a video. |
pardot | past | The cookie is set when the visitor is logged in as a Pardot user. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
IDE | 1 year 24 days | Used by Google DoubleClick and stores information about how the user uses the website and any other advertisement before visiting the website. This is used to present users with ads that are relevant to them according to the user profile. |
test_cookie | 15 minutes | This cookie is set by doubleclick.net. The purpose of the cookie is to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. |
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE | 5 months 27 days | This cookie is set by Youtube. Used to track the information of the embedded YouTube videos on a website. |
YSC | session | This cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos. |
yt-remote-connected-devices | never | These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. |
yt-remote-device-id | never | These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_lfa | 2 years | This cookie is set by the provider Leadfeeder. This cookie is used for identifying the IP address of devices visiting the website. The cookie collects information such as IP addresses, time spent on website and page requests for the visits.This collected information is used for retargeting of multiple users routing from the same IP address. |